Challenges of Attributing Extreme Weather Events to Climate Change

11/25/20221 min read

Probabilistic event attribution (“PEA”) investigates the link between anthropogenic CO2 emissions and changes in the climate system, analysing whether and how past emissions have increased the likelihood of an extreme weather event (Otto et al 2014). PEA can be valuable in helping policymakers formulate adaptation responses for both specific extreme events and broader climatological trends (Otto et al 2015), and in ascertaining loss and damage under the Warsaw international mechanism.

For PEA research to be effective and relevant, there must be rigorous examination of the scientific certainties inherent in the field and the subject matter, and unambiguous communication of those uncertainties as well the results of such research (Stott et al 2016). Further, PEA conclusions must be delivered in ways that assist and are accessible to policy- and decision-makers without science backgrounds (Stott et al 2016).

PEA studies have focused on Europe and North America, with gaps in South America and Africa (Stott et al 2016). Attention should be paid in Africa given its high vulnerability to climate change (Otto et al 2015). Further, scientists and policymakers must cooperate and communicate in framing the appropriate attribution questions in order to deliver results relevant to the stakeholder and the application (Otto et al 2015).

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References:

  • Otto, F., R. James, and M. Allen. (2014). ‘The science of attributing extreme weather events and its potential contribution to assessing loss and damage associated with climate change impacts’. Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford.

  • Otto, F.E., E. Boyd, R.G. Jones, R.J. Cornforth, R. James, H.R. Parker, and M.R. Allen. (2015). ‘Attribution of extreme weather events in Africa: a preliminary exploration of the science and policy implications’. Climatic Change 132(4) 2015, pp.531–543.

  • Stott, P.A., N. Christidis, F.E.L. Otto, Y. Sun, J-P Vanderlinden, G.J. van Oldenborgh, R. Vautard, H. von Storch, P. Walton, P. Yiou, and F.W. Zwiers. (2016). ‘Attribution of extreme weather and climate‐related events’. Wiley Interdiscip Rev Clim Change. 2016 Jan; 7(1): 23–41. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4739554/