From Pen & Paper to Supercomputers: Changes & Advances in Climate Modelling

1/3/20230 min read

The earliest climate model in the 1900s was a modest ‘pen and paper’ affair in which Arrhenius calculated the influence of carbon dioxide on Earth’s energy budget (Anderson et al 2016: 180). In 1922, Richardson suggested the prediction of weather by use of equations and gridded cells, which are integral core components in today’s modern climate models (Hickman 2018).

After the Second World War, climate modelling advanced at an impressive pace.

In 1946, von Neumann put forward the idea of using computers to forecast changes in climate and weather (Hickman 2018). Then, in 1950, the Electronic Numerical Integrator & Computer produced the first computerised regional weather forecast, and in 1954, the world’s first real-time numerical weather forecast was generated (Hickman 2018). Phillips followed by building the first global climate model (‘GCM’) in 1956 (Hickman 2018).

In 1967 the world witnessed the creation of the first 3-dimensional model of ocean circulation, and also the first viable projection of linkages between atmospheric changes and fluctuations in carbon dioxide (Hickman 2018). The completion of the Nimbus III satellite in 1969 (Hickman 2018) introduced in a new source of observational data for input in climate models.

The development of the first coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM in 1975 and the establishment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 1988 (Hickman 2018) improved modelling methodologies and institutionalized climate science. The field advanced yet further with the birth of attribution studies in 2004 (Hickman 2018), enhancing the practical value of climate models in mitigation and adaptation design.

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