Future Climate Risks in South Korea

I used CMIP6 scenario runs generated by the model KACE1-0-G created by the Korea Meteorological Administration’s National Institute of Meteorological Sciences. (N.B. Table A1 of this article by Tebaldi et al (2021) was very helpful in identifying the models most relevant to a specific country or a region. https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/12/253/2021/esd-12-253-2021.pdf)

The variables I considered were variable precipitation (in kg/month) and monthly averages in variable sea level pressure (in Pa) for the time periods 1950-2000 and 2050-2100 under SSP126 and SSP585.

Under both SSPs, in the first time period, sea level pressure in the first period ranged from approximately 101,135 Pa to 101,215 Pa, and precipitation ranged from approximately 0.000035 to 0.000036 kg/month.

In summary, increases in sea level pressure and in precipitation were projected under both SSPs; however the increases under SSP585 were more extreme.

Under SSP126, sea level pressure in the second period was forecasted to range between 101,145 Pa and 101,225 Pa, indicating an increase in sea level pressure under this SSP. The projected range of precipitation in the second period was 0.0000345 to 0.000038 kg/month, indicating a general increase in precipitation under SSP126.

In the SSP585 scenario, in the second period the forecasted range of sea level pressure was 101,150 Pa to 101,245 Pa, which is an increase from the observed range of 101,135 Pa to 101,215 Pa. In the second period the projected range of precipitation also increased to between 0.000035 to 0.000040 kg/month.

If higher sea level pressure correlates to lower sea levels (SMHI 2010), the projected increase in sea level pressure is surprising, given that sea levels around the Korean Peninsula have been rising and are projected to continue to rise (The National Atlas of Korea).

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N.B. Upon further discussion with our supervisor, and as corroborated by Kim et al (2021), it appears that the discrepancy can be explained by the inability of global climate models – by reason of their coarse 100x100km resolution (Kim et al 2021: 2) – to capture and simulate the unique geographic features of the marginal seas of the Northwest Pacific. The complicated topography and narrowness of the straits in these marginal seas (Kim et al 2021: 2) means that sea level change is influenced heavily by eddy-scale variations, tides, buoyancy input from rivers, and exchange of water between these seas and the open oceans (Kim et al 2021: 2), all of which cannot be simulated by GCMs to a sufficient degree of accuracy.

References:

Kim Y-Y, B-G Kim, K.Y. Jeong, E. Lee, D-S Byun, and Y-K Cho. (2021). ‘Local Sea-Level Rise Caused by Climate Change in the Northwest Pacific Marginal Seas Using Dynamical Downscaling’. Front. Mar. Sci. 8:620570. doi: 10.3389/fmars.2021.620570

Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (“SMHI”). (2010). ‘Air Pressure and Sea Level’. https://www.smhi.se/en/theme/air-pressure-and-sea-level-1.12266 Published 10 August 2010. Last updated 23 April 2014.

The National Atlas of Korea. ‘Sea Level Rise’. http://nationalatlas.ngii.go.kr/pages/page_775.php