Listicle: Limitations & Sources of Uncertainty in Climate Models

1/3/20230 min read

1. Forecasting errors associated with inadequate or incomplete observations and/or model deficiencies

2. Chaotic nature of atmospheric flows

3. Errors involved in the approximations of reality within the equations forming the dynamical core of a global climate model

4. Uncertainty in the degree to which unresolved process are parameterizable

5. Poorly qualified ranges of uncertainty in the empirical relationships derived from observation and process studies 6. Difficulty in parameterization of small-scale phenomena

7. Challenges in accounting for unresolved mesoscale phenomena which interact with the resolved circulation

8. Lack of understanding and observation of (A) the processes controlling CO2 uptake by oceans and terrestrial biosphere, and (B) their response to changes in atmospheric CO2, and (C) their response to changes in climate

References:

McFarlane, N. (2011). ‘Parameterizations: representing key processes in climate models without resolving them’. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 2(4) 2011, pp.482–497. (C.f. points 1 to 7 above).
Friedlingstein, P., M. Meinshausen, V.K. Arora, C.D. Jones, A. Anav, S.K. Liddicoat, and R. Knutti. (2014). ‘Uncertainties in CMIP5 climate projections due to carbon cycle feedbacks’. Journal of Climate 27(2) 2014, pp.511–526. (C.f. point 8 above).