The Effect of Climate Change on Tropical Cyclones

11/17/20222 min read

It is difficult to detect long-term trends in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones (“TCs”) because of “large amplitude fluctuations in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones,” as well as “limitations in the availability and quality of global historical records of tropical cyclones” (Knutson et al, 2010).

Further, there are also difficulties in modelling projections of future TC activity. These are due to the lack of certainty in both the manner in which large-scale tropical climate will change, and the corresponding effect of those changes on TC activity (Knutson et al, 2010). It is also unclear whether past changes in frequency, intensity, and rainfall “exceed the variability expected through natural causes” (Knutson et al, 2010).

Tropical cyclones cause immense economic loss, and “the full supply-chain effects of major disruptions on national economies are significant” (Lenzen et al, 2019).

In 2017, in the wake of severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie, “industries directly hit by the cyclone suffered approximately 4802 job losses, but some 3685 jobs were affected in these industries’ upstream supply chains. A total of AUD 2203 million losses in value added was observed, AUD 1544 million of which were direct with particular impact around Mackay and Fitzroy, as well as the coastal areas of northern Queensland, Brisbane and northern New South Wales (Richmond–Tweed area)” (Lenzen et al, 2019).

The economic damage and disruption caused by tropical cyclones has increased sharply in recent decades, “caused primarily by rising coastal populations and the increasing value of infrastructure in coastal areas” (Lenzen et al, 2019).

Future projections presented by Knutson et al (2010) include:-

1. “the globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms, with intensity increases of 2–11% by 2100,”

2. “decreases in the globally averaged frequency of tropical cyclones, by 6–34%,”

3. “some increase in mean maximum wind speed,”

4. a likely increase in TC-related rainfall, and

5. heighted vulnerability of coastal populations to TC storm-surge flooding, in line with a highly likely rise in future sea levels and continued coastal development.

References:

  • Knutson, T.R., McBride, J.L., Chan, J., Emanuel, K., Holland, G., Landsea, C., Held, I., Kossin, J.P., Srivastava, A.K., and Sugi, M. (2010). ‘Tropical cyclones and climate change’. Nature Geoscience 3(3) 2010, pp.157–163.

  • Lenzen, M., Malik, A., Kenway, S., Daniels, P., Lam, K.L., and Geschke, A. (2019). ‘Economic damage and spillovers from a tropical cyclone’. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 137–151, 2019. https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/19/137/2019/